Africa growth forecast 2026–2027: modest acceleration
Africa is expected to regain a measure of economic momentum over the next two years, with average growth projected to edge up to 4.0% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, compared with an estimated 3.9% in 2025. These projections are presented in a United Nations report entitled “World Economic Situation and Prospect 2026” (United Nations).
The UN associates this incremental improvement with firmer macroeconomic stability, rising domestic and foreign investment, and strengthening consumer demand across a number of economies. At the same time, it cautions that Africa’s performance will remain uneven, as diverging commodity-price trends continue to shape growth outcomes in different sub-regions (United Nations).
Commodity price divergence keeps regional outcomes uneven
While the continental headline figure suggests gradual improvement, the report underscores that commodity cycles are likely to remain a decisive variable. Price movements for oil, metals and other primary products affect nominal GDP, fiscal revenues and external balances in ways that can either reinforce or erode the room for manoeuvre of policymakers.
This dependency is not presented as uniform across Africa: some economies benefit from higher prices for precious metals, while oil exporters face a less supportive environment if crude prices remain weak. The UN’s central message is therefore one of differentiated trajectories, rather than a single continental story (United Nations).
East Africa growth outlook: strongest sub-region
East Africa is projected to remain the continent’s fastest-growing sub-region in 2026 and 2027. The UN expects growth of 5.8% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, following an estimated 5.4% in 2025 (United Nations).
The report highlights Ethiopia and Kenya—identified as the sub-region’s two largest economies—as principal contributors to this performance, with projected growth rates of 6.3% and 5.1% respectively. These estimates, however, are presented in the wider context of an international environment that can still transmit shocks through trade and financing conditions (United Nations).
West Africa GDP growth: gold tailwinds, oil headwinds
In West Africa, growth is projected to ease slightly to 4.4% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025, before improving to 4.7% in 2027 (United Nations). The report draws attention to the dual influence of commodity markets within the sub-region.
High prices for precious metals, notably gold, are expected to lift nominal GDP in exporting countries, potentially supporting real activity through improved balance-of-payments positions and stronger fiscal receipts. Conversely, persistently softer oil prices would weigh on nominal GDP and public revenues in crude-exporting economies, illustrating the sub-region’s internal divergence even as aggregate growth remains comparatively resilient (United Nations).
North Africa: tighter external conditions weigh on demand
For North Africa, the UN anticipates a mild deceleration, with growth projected at 4.1% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, compared with an estimated 4.3% in 2025 (United Nations). The report attributes this softening primarily to slightly tighter balance-of-payments conditions expected to moderate domestic demand in several countries.
Egypt is presented as an exception within this general pattern, with GDP projected to rise by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027. The UN associates this outlook with the expected positive effects of economic reforms designed to attract greater inflows of foreign finance (United Nations).
Central Africa growth: below continental average, oil risk exposure
Central Africa is expected to continue growing below the continental average. The UN estimates growth at 2.8% for 2025, with a modest acceleration to 3.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 (United Nations).
According to the report, the sub-region’s performance remains closely linked to commodity prices and extractive industries. Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon are described as particularly exposed to downside risks associated with weaker oil prices, a vulnerability that can quickly transmit into fiscal and external accounts (United Nations).
Southern Africa: structural constraints limit the rebound
In Southern Africa, growth is projected to improve only marginally, reaching 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, after an estimated 1.6% in 2025 (United Nations). The UN frames these modest rates as the outcome of a combination of domestic structural constraints and external headwinds.
South Africa is depicted as a key factor shaping sub-regional prospects. The report points to persistent challenges including insufficient electricity supply, high unemployment, and subdued mining and manufacturing performance, which are expected to offset some of the benefits associated with higher gold prices (United Nations).
Within the sub-region, Botswana and Namibia are said to have experienced a loss of momentum amid declining diamond prices. The report notes that Lesotho’s clothing industry remains highly exposed to global trade turbulence, including the increase of US tariffs to above 30% and the expiry of the US trade preference scheme known as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Angola, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected to continue facing double-digit inflation, a context likely to encourage central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy stances (United Nations).
Inflation, debt service and trade barriers: the binding constraints
Beyond sub-regional growth differentials, the UN emphasises constraints that cut across many economies. It notes that the diversification of Africa’s trading partners has provided a degree of resilience against trade disruptions, while warning that limited diversification in the composition of exports remains a source of vulnerability for several countries (United Nations).
Inflation has moderated from its post-pandemic peak, yet it remains elevated in numerous African economies. This reduces the scope for monetary easing, even where growth needs are pressing. In parallel, high debt-service costs continue to narrow fiscal space for development spending, while fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring are reported to be progressing in several heavily indebted economies (United Nations).
The report further points to a reduction in official development assistance from major donors and to rising trade barriers as additional factors weighing on Africa’s growth outlook, a summary also relayed by Agence Ecofin (Agence Ecofin; United Nations).