Momentum returns to the Congolese economy
In its final 2025 meeting held on 8 December in Brazzaville, the National Economic and Financial Committee of Congo, the domestic branch of the Bank of Central African States, delivered a notably sanguine assessment of economic activity. Chaired by Minister of Finance, Budget and Public Portfolio Christian Yoka, the session concluded that real gross domestic product should expand by 2.8 % for the year, almost doubling the 1.5 % recorded in 2024 (CNEF communiqué).
Delegates emphasised that this acceleration is neither fortuitous nor solely contingent on the hydrocarbon sector. Although fresh capital expenditure on offshore blocks has lifted crude output, the committee credited the “vigour of the non-oil economy” for sustaining momentum at a time when global demand is clouded by protectionist undercurrents and geopolitical frictions.
Hydrocarbons remain an anchor, diversification gains pace
Oil continues to underpin external revenues, yet incremental reforms introduced since 2023—most visibly the gradual digitisation of customs and the streamlining of licensing—have begun to translate into higher agricultural processing, construction material production and telecom services. Those three segments posted double-digit growth rates in the third quarter, according to figures tabled by the Central Directorate of the Economy.
Officials argue that diversification is no longer a policy slogan but an observable trend. A senior analyst within the Ministry of Planning noted during the meeting that non-oil value added now represents “close to 58 % of quarterly GDP, the highest share in eight years,” an assertion later corroborated by provisional national accounts.
Inflation contained near the CEMAC benchmark
Headline consumer prices are projected to average 3 % in 2025, marginally below the 3.1 % registered in 2024 and in line with the CEMAC convergence criterion. Food items faced episodic pressures—linked to logistical glitches and temporary power shortages—but these were offset by stable transport fares and the removal of several para-fiscal charges on imported staples.
The committee commended the Central Bank’s calibrated liquidity operations, which have prevented excessive depreciation of the franc CFA without curtailing credit supply. In the words of one CNEF delegate, “price stability has been achieved without sacrificing growth, a balance many larger economies presently struggle to maintain.”
Bank lending and public debt dynamics
Commercial banks expanded gross outstanding credit by 27.9 % year on year to reach 1 816.4 billion CFA francs as of 31 August 2025. While non-performing loans also rose—up 15.7 % to 264.8 billion CFA francs—the ratio of doubtful assets to total portfolios edged down thanks to faster overall lending growth, signalling that risk remains manageable.
On domestic capital markets, government securities attracted robust demand, pushing the outstanding stock to 2 659.3 billion CFA francs, an annual increase of 12.1 %. Treasury officials argue that sustained investor appetite reflects confidence in the authorities’ medium-term fiscal path, which targets a primary surplus of 0.5 % of GDP in 2026. Independent economists stress, however, that close monitoring of contingent liabilities will be essential as the state proceeds with infrastructure commitments.
A nuanced regional and global backdrop
Across the six-member CEMAC bloc, the composite index of economic activity expanded by 6.7 % over twelve months, moderating from 8 % the previous quarter. Inflation retreated to 2.8 % in September, down from 4.3 % a year earlier, enabling finance ministers to prioritise growth-supportive spending. The BEAC nevertheless cautions that external balances remain exposed to fluctuations in oil prices and tightening global financial conditions.
Global prospects add a further layer of uncertainty. The International Monetary Fund’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook pegs worldwide growth at 3.2 % this year and 3.1 % in 2026, citing trade frictions among major economies as a headwind. Within that environment, Congo’s performance stands out as both resilient and prudently managed.
Policy continuity and prospects for 2026
Participants to the Brazzaville meeting underlined that the credibility of macroeconomic stewardship will hinge on maintaining reforms aimed at broadening the tax base, upgrading energy infrastructure and deepening financial inclusion. Minister Yoka confirmed the government’s intention to operationalise the forthcoming sovereign wealth fund, designed to cushion budgetary outlays from commodity price cycles while channeling capital into strategic diversification projects.
Private-sector representatives present at the session voiced measured optimism, citing the palpable improvement in payment timelines for public contracts and the increased clarity of regulatory procedures. A chief executive in agribusiness commented that “predictability in policy, more than subsidies, is the most decisive incentive for new investment.”
Taken together, the findings of the CNEF suggest that Congo enters 2026 on firmer footing. While vigilance is warranted given the fluid international landscape, the data support a cautiously confident narrative: reforms are gaining traction, monetary discipline is anchoring expectations, and the economy is incrementally less dependent on a single commodity. For investors and citizens alike, that combination offers a stable platform from which to plan the future.