Persistent fuel shortage tests post-COVID recovery
Queues at filling stations stretching into the early hours of the morning have become an unexpected barometer of economic sentiment in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire. Since late May, intermittent shortages of gasoline and gasoil have rattled small businesses, public transport operators and households already coping with the lingering effects of the pandemic and global inflationary currents. The Ministry of Hydrocarbons attributes the crunch to a confluence of factors: scheduled maintenance at the Congolaise de raffinage (Coraf), unplanned shipping delays and a structural mismatch between fast-growing demand and domestic refining capacity. According to the African Development Bank, national consumption of refined products has risen by almost 6 percent annually since 2019, outpacing Coraf’s current output ceiling of roughly 15,000 barrels per day.
Emergency import surge stabilises retail outlets
Under questioning in the National Assembly on 4 July, Hydrocarbons Minister Bruno Jean Richard Itoua outlined a package designed to transform the immediate narrative from scarcity to sufficiency. The state-owned Société nationale des pétroles du Congo (SNPC) has booked additional cargoes amounting to 105 days of gasoline and 70 days of diesel cover, an unprecedented buffer in recent memory. Two tankers carrying premium motor spirit were discharged in early July, while a third vessel is expected before the middle of the month, a sequencing that officials say has already shortened queues in several urban centres (Les Dépêches de Brazzaville, 8 July 2024). By combining the new imports with Coraf’s resumed throughput, the ministry projects a gradual return to normal pump-side operations over the third quarter.
Logistics renaissance from rails to storage depots
A recurring weakness of Congo-Brazzaville’s downstream sector is neither crude supply nor shipping capacity but inland logistics. The Chemin de fer Congo-Océan (CFCO) line linking Pointe-Noire to Brazzaville has suffered from ageing locomotives and limited wagon availability, often slowing the redistribution of refined products from the coastal refinery to the densely populated Congo River corridor. Minister Itoua revealed that an accelerated maintenance programme for CFCO and the leasing of additional tanker wagons are under way, financed through treasury advances and a modest contribution from the Central African States Development Bank. In parallel, the government has activated so-called “Coup de Poing” operations: continuous truck convoys supplemented by river barges at Owando and Oyo, aimed at saturating regional depots before the next harvest season inflates diesel demand for generators and farm equipment.
Designing a viable downstream economic model
Behind the immediate firefighting lies a deeper macro-fiscal question: how to reconcile international oil price volatility with regulated domestic pump tariffs set well below cost. The International Monetary Fund, in a May staff report, urged gradual liberalisation to curb subsidy leakage estimated at 2.1 percent of GDP (IMF Country Report No. 24/112). Minister Itoua publicly acknowledged the diagnostic yet underscored President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s refusal to impose a sudden price shock that could erode purchasing power and heighten social risk. Government technocrats are therefore crafting a tiered approach built on targeted subsidies for low-income public transport fleets, digital couponing to prevent smuggling, and the stepwise alignment of premium fuel prices with import parity. Observers close to the dossier suggest that a first pilot of electronic subsidy cards could launch in Brazzaville by December.
Strategic Pointe-Noire–Brazzaville pipeline on the drawing board
If emergency imports provide breathing space, the administration views infrastructure as the ultimate cure. A 550-kilometre multi-product pipeline from the Atlantic hub of Pointe-Noire to the capital is the centrepiece of this vision. Preliminary engineering studies conducted with Russian consortium Transneft-Techno under a 2023 memorandum of understanding indicate a throughput capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year, supported by three new storage terminals totalling 300,000 m³—triple the volume currently managed by Société commune de logistique (Sclog). Officials argue the pipeline could cut inland transport costs by up to 40 percent, shielding the budget from future freight spikes while creating construction jobs in Niari, Bouenza and Pool Departments. While financing modalities are still negotiated, Moscow’s offer of export-credit facilities is viewed in Brazzaville as a timely complement to Chinese-backed road investments, diversifying strategic partnerships without upsetting regional dynamics (Africa Intelligence, 7 June 2024).
Diplomatic balancing act between social equity and fiscal prudence
The fuel issue is no longer a purely technical affair; it has become an arena where social cohesion, investor confidence and external relations intersect. By resisting abrupt deregulation, the Congolese leadership seeks to maintain popular trust and avoid the street protests that rocked neighbouring countries after subsidy removals. Conversely, partners such as the IMF and the World Bank emphasise credibility signals for debt sustainability discussions scheduled later this year in Washington. Negotiators close to the dossier report that the government is considering a medium-term framework that would pair gradual retail price alignment with an expansion of the cash-transfer programme Lisungi, thus cushioning vulnerable households while preserving reform momentum.
A cautiously optimistic outlook for energy security
For now, station managers in Brazzaville whisper that deliveries are arriving “plus régulièrement” than at any point since March, a tangible sign that the import surge is taking effect. Whether the respite is durable will depend on the synchronisation of rail upgrades, the build-out of new storage and the pace at which the Pointe-Noire pipeline moves from drawing board to ground-breaking. Diplomats stationed in the capital note that the government’s willingness to open its downstream model to external audit—while preserving calibrated consumer protection—has tempered earlier market anxieties. If sustained, the blend of emergency pragmatism and long-range planning may yet transform a perennial shortage into an inflection point for Congo-Brazzaville’s broader economic diversification agenda.
